A direct mail rebound is afoot, and consultant Jonathan Margulies has already begun seeing it.

“Somewhere around the midpoint of 2010, people began investing again in the mail chain in a way that they hadn’t really been doing since the recession began,” says Margulies, a director at the strategic consulting firm Winterberry Group in New York. Indeed, London-based ZenithOptimedia expects total direct mail spending in the United States to rise 2.9 percent in 2011 — that’s up from its prediction of 1.7 percent growth in 2010.

The media agency estimates marketing services as a whole will jump 2.6 percent this year. Mail likely won’t be the only channel to benefit from a healing economy. Here are six trends to watch:

ROI takes priority: Clients will be focused on return on investment more than ever before, says Susan Reiter, director of client service at marketing agency BKV in Overland Park, Kan. No medium will be exempt. “Even social media — we’re seeing it’s not just creating the dialogue but how you monetize that,” she says.

Acquisition efforts restart: In 2011, “we return to the business of growth,” Margulies says, and direct mail will remain ideal for winning new customers. “[Acquisition] is one area where the number of credible digital substitutions for mail just isn’t very deep right now,” he says.

Targeting pervades: When deploying precious dollars, marketers will be carefully selecting the audience. “We see credit card direct mail coming back, and I think the targeting and the scoring and the scrutiny of whom to send that to is a lot tighter than it used to be,” says Barry Kessel, chief executive officer of RTC Relationship Marketing in Washington, D.C. Expect to see more targeting online, too, as marketers employ new tools and data resources.

Tablets take off: Research firm Gartner is predicting “media tablets are poised for strong growth with worldwide end user sales projected to total 54.8 million units in 2011, up 181 percent from 2010.”¹ Marketers will be experimenting with new ways to reach tablet users through vehicles like e-mail, search, social media, online display advertising, video, branded apps and even catalogs. “I personally think that, over time, tablets will revolutionize what we see as the catalog industry,” Kessel says. “You’ll have a tablet that will dynamically give you content based on data that they have about your previous purchases.”

Digital integration strengthens: The convergence of direct and digital will accelerate as media fragmentation weakens single-channel campaigns. Expect more widespread use of what Reiter calls the “new shiny fun toy” — quick response (QR) codes. These quirky two-dimensional barcodes redirect a mobile browser to a website, video or message at the click of a smartphone’s camera.

Personalization progresses: The industry will continue to test techniques that make campaigns feel more personal, like variable data printing (VDP) and personalized URLs (PURLs). “We’ve captured a lot of data now at this point,” Reiter says, “and I think marketers are really trying to integrate that data into the target audience’s experience.”

What do you see in your crystal ball for 2011?

We’d love to hear what your expectations are for 2011. In 100 words or less …

• What are your goals for this year?
• What marketing trends will you be watching?
• What gives you reason for optimism?
• What do you think will change this year?
• What will stay the same?

Send your input to submit@delivermagazine.com. We’ll be featuring the insights of our readers and industry leaders in the coming weeks.