The author of a new book criticizing “gut-driven” marketing explains why relying on intuition over intelligence is just plain dumb

By: Steve Cuno With the possible exception of abstaining from chocolate to ward off acne, some erroneous beliefs are arguably harmless. But many are not. It’s one thing to wear a silly golf hat to improve your game. It’s another to stake millions in marketing dollars on a campaign that “feels right,” or to reject one that doesn’t. Yet every day, marketers make big decisions using naught but “gut intuition” as their guide. Then, to ensure all are duly impressed with the higher authority of their lower halves, they justify their decisions with, “…and my gut” – pause for effect – “is never wrong.” There would be nothing objectionable about what I refer to as “gut-driven” marketing if guts were always, or even usually, right. They are neither. At best, the ratio of correct to incorrect gut-driven decisions is 50/50. Here’s why: For every gut that turns out to be right, another necessarily turns out to be wrong. For instance, the founder of a major shipping company felt in his gut that his business model would succeed, but his college professor’s gut disagreed. The producer of what arguably became the world’s most popular rock group was rejected by a record executive whose gut prompted him to turn the band down. The first man to mass-produce cars had a gut that said Americans wanted affordable automobiles, but his early partners’ guts didn’t. I don’t find 50 percent odds encouraging, but if you do, I must confess that your gut’s odds are really much lower. The above examples are based on successful ventures. Consider the number that bomb: failed products like “New” Coke, deserted retail outlets, movies no one sees and bankrupt entrepreneurs, to name a few. More ideas flop than fly, yet behind every flop was a gut that assured a believer, “It’ll work.” Then what about guts that predict failure? Aren’t they right most of the time? Killing ideas ensures avoiding failures, but it also precludes breakthroughs. Thus the inventor of the incandescent light bulb missed out on alternating current. The man whose gut rightly told him that mass-producing cheap cars would succeed lost ground by not offering color choices. And the founders of what became a large chain of coffee houses rejected an opportunity to sell brewed coffee by the cup. So declining opportunities is risky, too. With the number of ideas that never make it to market, there is no way of knowing how many early-abandoned plans might have turned out to be big hits. (Click here to learn four common reasons why marketers mistakenly think their guts are infallible) Trading guts for brains Of course, this raises the question, What exactly should you bet your marketing budget on? Didn’t you work your way into your job using your skills, experience and judgment? Pages: 1 2

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